SAFETY DOC LIVESTREAM #148 | Matthew Hoover | Four Waves of Chaos | Where is All the Ammunition?

By David P. Perrodin | September 5, 2020

[Podcast] What will happen when truck drivers refuse to deliver to powder-keg big cities after the Presidential election? Are you aware that truck drivers are currently paid exorbitant bonuses to take on the risk to bring supplies to America’s riot-smashed metropolitans including Seattle and Portland? Did you know that it is remarkably easy to disable a stopped semi by detaching one readily-accessible connection? If people abandon the big cities, will the smaller cities down the road collapse one-by-one as thousands of people seek refuge. How will supplies hold up? What will you do when store shelves are no longer restocked? Our guest has considered these scenarios. Read the full blog post for episode #148 at safetyphd.com.

DIRECT LINK to MP3 of this Episode: https://tinyurl.com/SDP148-AUDIO

MATTHEW HOOVER of CRS FIREARMS & RESALE

Matthew Hoover describes himself as “Just a dude with hard life experience.” With his family, he operates a resale shop in rural Wisconsin and sells furniture, household items, collectibles, boat propellers, luggage, camping items, knives, firearms and ammunition. He is the host of the popular CRS Firearms YouTube channel that focuses on firearms, self-defense, supply chains impacting weapons and ammunition, and the psychology of personal safety.

FOUR PHASES OF CHAOS

In August, 2020, Matthew released an insightful YouTube video in which he described his personal observations of “the four phases of chaos” that have impacted consumer demand and supply side capacity specific to gun ammunition. As many people peg the start of the ammunition shortage to the coronavirus pandemic, Matthew brings out his whiteboard and draws a timeline dating back to the Obama administration. And, he debunks a popular conspiracy that ammunition is hoarded in clandestine warehouses.

JUST-IN-TIME PRODUCTION

Firearms owners scan websites for ammunition – a shortage that our guest believes will take years to remedy due to just-in-time manufacturing. By the 1990s, JIT was being adopted across industries – including productions of firearms and ammunition. How did we get here? “Just in time (JIT)” manufacturing has origins to the 1970s Toyota plants in Japan. The purpose of JIT is to limit warehousing of items and instead have items manufactured and sent directly to suppliers and to customers. This is especially prominent in modern book publishing when the book isn’t printed until the customer places an order. Instead of retrieving a copy from a pallet in a warehouse, the book is printed and sent directly to the buyer.

DISADVANTAGES of JIT

There is no spare finished product available to meet unexpected orders, because all products are made to meet actual orders. When demand skyrockets, as it has for popular types of rifle ammunition in 2020, production can only scale up so much and backorders extend for months or even years.

FREEZERS ARE THE NEW CURRENCY

Beyond steady inquiries for guns and ammunition, one other item has been in hot demand at Matthew’s store. Freezers! In fact, he sold the freezer from his basement!

KIDS AND THE PANDEMIC

Matthew and David discussed examples of how the pandemic created bizarre, hard-to-explain experiences for young kids as schools closed, playgrounds were ringed with scary police tape, and people began to cover their faces with masks as they stood six feet away. Matthew expresses confidence when in the presence of children and doesn’t dwell on the pandemic when they are in earshot. He notes that kids take cues from the adults – and when adults express fear and panic, kids notice and in turn worry and lose their sense of security. While we want children to be aware of their environment and exercise situational awareness, there is little value in burdening and confusing them with the details of a fluid event that is complicated and beyond their control.

HOW DID THE 1960s UNREST END?

Toward the end of the interview, Matthew wondered how the current chaos would end and felt clues might be found by learning more about the turmoil, protests, and riots of the 1960s. Civil unrest due to a charged racial climate and unpopular war in Vietnam resulted in more than 100 cities erupting in violence in 1967 and 1968, including 43 people killed and hundreds injured in rioting in Detroit in 1967. What will be the actions that bring an end to the civil unrest of 2020, and are Americans in store for unimaginable violence following the November election?

FOLLOW