Posts Tagged ‘Probability’
Conjunction Fallacy | Why We Believe Elaborate Reports | Taming Human Bias | SDP172
[Podcast] The `Conjunction Fallacy’ is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Here are some examples. EXAMPLE ONE: Doc is a Wisconsinite who went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless…
Read MoreSurviving the Dangerous Interface of Probability and Prioritization – SDP#38
Probability works well in determining long-term behavior, but it doesn’t work well for predicting outcomes in the short term. Probability is key to safety and decision-making. Dr. Perrodin talks about one of the most common mistakes people make with probability and how to avoid it.
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