The Dunning-Kruger Effect | What It Is And How To Fight It | Overton Window Has Shifted | LIVESTREAM 4-24-2020 [Podcast]

By David P. Perrodin | April 25, 2020

[Podcast] In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence.

DIRECT LINK to MP3 of this Episode: https://tinyurl.com/SDP131-AUDIO

FACE VALIDITY CHECK IN

Doc shared that the local authorities are monitoring social distancing on city basketball courts; the small engines place has opened up for pick up / delivery; even more facing at WalMart due to thinning supply in paint and hardware aisles; more traffic; fewer OBO posts to Craigslist and rebound in the pricing of the area’s firewood market; and local hospitals re-starting elective surgeries on Monday.

BADGER BOUNCE BACK – RED FLAG OF MANUFACTURED SLOGANS

Doc notes how state governments are becoming creative, and weird, with new terms and slogans specific to the pandemic response and easing restrictions. For Wisconsinites to gather in groups of 10 or more again, there must be two consecutive weeks of declines in all flu-like illnesses. Influenza, a head cold, the sniffles; it doesn’t matter. But, how does this work across 72 counties? What about Wisconsin’s wicked allergy season. Doc car is already dusted with pollen. Scrutiny of these “phases” plans reveals them to be highly subjective, vague and really not much of a plan at all.

SEVEN NEW TERMS IN THE PAST 45 DAYS

From the chat, Bacon Maldito brought awareness to new terms that have been infused into American’s vocabulary over the past month and half. (1) Social distancing; (2) Shelter in Place; (3) Six feet apart; (4) Essential travel only; (5) N95 mask; (6) Flatten the curve; and (7) Self-quarantine. A problem with such new terms is a lack of inter-rater reliability, for example, what is “Essential” relative to travel, work or recreation?

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT

The concept is based on a 1999 paper by Cornell University psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger who caution that incompetent people tend to do three things: (1) Overestimate their own skill levels; (2) fail to recognize the genuine skill and expertise of other people; and (3) fail to recognize their own mistakes and lack of skill. Doc shares his experience with attempting to re-wire his house.

PREVENTING DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT

Practice the ability to step back and look at your own behavior and abilities from outside of oneself. This is known as having a high level of metacognition. The second way to fight the DKE is to have a network of member checks, or people who will be honest with you and tell you what you need to hear and not what you want to hear.

ULTRACREPIDARIANISM

This is giving opinions on topics poorly understood. The pandemic is churning out instant experts and when these folks are in government or positions of authority, they rush things into practice without considering the consequences – such as a municipality creating a website for citizens to report social distancing violators.

OVERTON WINDOW – IT JUST CHANGED & HERE’S WHAT THAT MEANS

The Overton window is the range of ideas the public is willing to consider and accept — ideas a politician could successfully campaign on. This window shifts over time, as it’s subject to the trends of social thought and norms. All social reform movements have to shift the Overton window to make progress. The concept of women voting or animals having rights – are examples of how Overton window has moved over time. The Overton Window has drastically shifted in 2020! A year ago, campaigning on gun violence and student safety would have been strong areas in which many Americans held firm opinions about. This fall, the campaign’s themes will be about: overhauling our hospitals; human tracing for personal safety – technology; mandatory vaccines; funding for unemployment / business shutdowns; building things in America; and Universal Basic Income